by Temitope Oladeji
10/4/2025
Russia continues its territorial advances in Ukraine slowly but significantly, according to two independent assessments, calling attention to a continued decline in momentum compared to how their advances began in 2024.
The findings revealed that Moscow and Kyiv aim to bolster their bargaining positions during United States-brokered negotiations to end the prolonged conflict.
In its latest update, the United Kingdom’s Ministry of Defence reported that Russian forces captured just 143 square kilometers (55 square miles) of Ukrainian territory in March, down from 196 sq kilometers (76 sq miles) in February and 326 sq kilometers (126 sq miles) in January.
Similar figures were also reported by the Washington, D.C.-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW), which estimated Russian gains at 203 sq km (78 sq miles) in March, 354 sq km (137 sq miles) in February, and 427 sq km (165 sq miles) in January.
These estimates are based on satellite imagery and geolocated open-source data, suggesting a sharp decline in Russia’s offensive.
If this trend continues, analysts suggest Russia’s advances could stagnate by early summer, around the time the United States President Donald Trump has said he hopes to see progress on a ceasefire deal.
Despite its slow progress, Russia has dramatically expanded its military presence in Ukraine.
According to Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief Oleksandr Syrskii, Russian troop strength in Ukraine has surged from approximately 150,000 soldiers in early 2022 to over 623,000 today.
Syrskii revealed that Russia has reinforced its forces by 120,000 to 130,000 soldiers annually.
However, most of the territory Russia currently controls is about 20 percent of Ukraine, which was captured during the annexation of Crimea in 2014 and the full-scale invasion that began in 2022.
A Ukrainian counteroffensive in 2023 reclaimed roughly 20,000 sq km (7,722 sq miles) of land, none of which Russia has managed to retake.
Russia’s advances in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region throughout 2024 yielded only modest territorial gains of about 4,168 sq km (1,609 sq miles), or just 0.69 percent of Ukraine’s total land area, according to a January report by the ISW.
These gains came at a high cost. Ukraine’s Ministry of Defence claims Russian troop losses have reached 430,790, equivalent to 36 motorized rifle division,s exceeding Russia’s combined losses in 2022 and 2023.
Although Russia has recruited heavily to replenish its ranks, experts say its military continues to face serious challenges in training and equipping these new forces.
Nevertheless, Moscow has maintained a steady stream of announcements highlighting the capture of small settlements, helping foster a narrative of inevitable conquest.
One such instance came this week when Russia’s Ministry of Defence reported the capture of Katerinovka in Donetsk. But analysts say these incremental gains are largely symbolic.
Even at 2024’s pace of advance, the ISW estimated it would take Russia two years to seize the remaining parts of Donetsk, a timeline now stretched further by this year’s declining rate of progress.